Conflict, fuel costs reshape Sydney Airport slots as travel demand shifts

Sydney Airport (SYD) take-off and landing slot numbers are down in key markets on initial allocations for the seven months to the end of October due to the Middle East conflict impacting regional aviation hubs and sending global fuel price soaring[1].

This double whammy has caused higher than normal slot cancellations as airlines adjust their capacity and reshape networks. High fuel prices have rendered some price-sensitive services uneconomic in the short-term, although underlying demand for slots remains robust.

Slot manager ACL Asia Pacific says 4% of all take-off and landing slots for the Northern Summer 26 scheduling period from late March to the end of October at SYD[2] have been cancelled.

International services saw the biggest decline with 6% cancelled while domestic slots are down 3% for the period. The highest cancellation rates are for carriers servicing China, Middle East, India, Philippines and Vietnam.

Most impacted

India: One third of all of slots to and from India (32%) have been cancelled from April to October, by far the most of any market. Highest in August (60%), September (46%) and October (44%).

China: Fuel security is a big issue for China. Its carriers – several of which had boosted services before the conflict began – cancelled 24% of slots over the period.

Middle East: Qatar (24%) and United Arab Emirates (22%) recorded high cancellation rates, especially from April to June, but they have since moderated.

Philippines and Vietnam: Cancellation rates of 18% and 12% respectively. High fuel prices and price-sensitive markets are the primary issues.

Travel patterns shift  

No region has escaped unscathed but some destinations benefited from increased services to meet demand caused by altered travel patterns ex-Sydney.

Of the Asian hubs, Malaysia is the best example with a 3% increase in slots to cater for increased demand from European-bound travellers avoiding Middle East hubs.

Slots to Thailand rose marginally while Vanuatu (7%) and Canada (7%) saw substantial slot increases.

Airlines also added capacity on services connecting Sydney travellers to Europe, including Italy and France via Perth, as passengers increasingly sought alternatives to Middle East hubs and airspace affected by the conflict.

Strong underlying international demand

Despite the current scheduling adjustments, ACL Asia Pacific is seeing strong demand for international take-off and landing slots at Sydney Airport for the six months from the end of October 2026 (Northern Winter 26).

Preliminary data shows international airline slot demand increasing by 6% compared with Northern Winter 25. Meanwhile demand for domestic slots is stable at +0.5%.

The figures suggest the current reductions are being driven by short-term geopolitical and economic factors rather than any weakening in airline interest in serving Sydney, Australia’s largest international gateway.

“While airlines are responding to fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty in the short term, demand for access to Sydney remains strong,” said ACL Asia Pacific Coordination Manager Darren Batty.

“What we’re seeing is airlines adapting their networks to changing market conditions and the increase in slot requests for the next scheduling period is a positive indication of Sydney’s ongoing importance to global airline networks.”

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[1] On 28 July, Singapore Airlines Group – which operates Singapore Airlines, low cost carrier Scoot and owns 25% of Air India – said its fuel bill for the June quarter increased by 78.5% over the previous corresponding period. Fule is the airline’s biggest cost, as is the case with most if not all carriers.

[2]Cancellations up to August 11 measured against slots held on January 31 Northern Summer 26 historic baseline date.